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Last night, as the Cavs were putting the sleeper hold on the Portland Trail Blazers in a 88-80 home win, the ‘Q’ erupted in MVP chants as LeBron James took the line in the closing minutes. And why not? Though he’d slumped his way to a very mortal 24 points, he tacked on 10 boards, 11 assists and two blocks.

The fact of the matter is, if this is a bad game for LeBron, then the MVP trophy might as well go to the engraving office now so the guy can start carving the L before the playoffs begin. Of course, folks in LA and New Orleans will take offense to that comment.

Both markets believe, quite fairly, that the MVP plays in their home arena. With 18 games left, I will admit that there is no clear cut favorite for the award. Those who watch the Cavs play will always lean toward LeBron, as he’s clearly the best player in the league, but there are major factors – Kobe playing in LA, Paul playing for the need-a-break-at-some-point Hornets of New Orleans – that make this more than just a best in the planet contest.

Naturally, I’m always out campaigning for LeBron. And, much like the political team that is taking Obama to the next level, I have laid out a strategy for bringing the trophy to Cleveland. There are things that are out of LeBron’s control, but I’ve figured out a three-prong strategy to get him started while we wait and hope for the other two pieces to fall into place.

Here goes.

What LeBron can control

1. The Cavs need to win 50 games
Last night’s win pushed the Cavs to 37-27, the first time they’ve been 10 games above .500 all season. While that is nice, they are still way behind the pace to match the last two season’s win total of 50 games. In fact, they’re on pace to win about 47.
While this season, which has been chock full of enough injuries and trades to make Billy Thomas a household name for an NBA season, was never about winning 50 games, it is now.

Here at S*KM we like to give you facts. OK, we don’t. But occasionally facts accidentally slip into our stories, and this one made its way in: There has never been an NBA MVP who played for a team that failed to win 50 games.

So step one is critical. The Cavs need to go 13-5 down the stretch to get to 50. It’s not impossible, but it would be tough. If they can do it, however, they will play perfectly into part two of the plan.

2. The Cavs need to take at least the four seed, probably the three seed in the East

LeBron has two MVP challengers in the West who pose serious threats based on team merit. Kobe and Paul will almost certainly be in the top four of the West – and remember that being on top of the West is much more impressive than winning the Special Olympics 100-yard dash known as the East.

Currently the Cavs are the No. 4 seed, with a two-game lead over the Toronto Raptors. They are also 3 ½ games behind the Orlando Magic for the No. 3 seed. The third seed is a long shot at this point, but moving up would be huge. If the Cavs stumble down the stretch and start the playoffs on the road, the trophy will head West of Cleveland when the team goes north.

3. LeBron needs to win the scoring title.
This is the easiest one in the bunch. He’s already leading the league in scoring at 30.8 ppg. That’s more than two points per game better than Kobe (28.1 ppg), and the next two contenders, Allen Iverson (26.9) and Carmelo Anthony (25.8) don’t even have a puncher’s chance.

Kobe could still get hot over the last 19 games, and LeBron could slump over his last 18, but this is the closest thing to a lock on the list.

At least one part will be easy.

Out of LeBron’s hands

1. The Lakers cannot take the top seed in the West

Assuming the Cavs have taken either the No. 3 or 4 spot in the East, LeBron still needs more help from Kobe Bryant. Kobe is working on an MVP formula of his own, as he will likely finish second in the league in scoring and his team currently has a ceiling of 55-58 wins. However, in the West 50-win teams are as common as an inappropriate sexual comment in the New York Knicks’ offices. That said, the coup de grace for Kobe would be his Lakers taking the No. 1 seed in the West. If that were to happen, chants of MVP would come Kobe’s way during Clippers games at the Staples Center.

Currently the Lakers are 44-19 and tied with the San Antonio Spurs atop the West standings. While I hate to say this, LeBron needs the Spurs to push forward and seal the No. 1 seed.

2. The New Orleans Hornets cannot take the top seed in the West

Again, assuming the Cavs at No.3 or No. 4 in the East, LeBron will need some help from Chris Paul. If Paul, whose team is currently 42-20 and just 2 ½ games back of the top seed, pushes his team to the top seed he’s the NBA MVP. Paul may have more of a mountain to climb than LeBron, as he plays in front of about 84 fans every night and true point guards have a tough time getting votes, but his team is also on a sure-fire 50-win pace and he’s the main reason. If his team pushes to the top of the West, who else would get the credit, Jannero Pargo?

-MoneyMike is S*KM’s chief basketball award strategist. You can write him a letter addressing your concerns with strategies at chiefstrategistandintelligenceofficer@sawkick.com

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